Natural gas consumption focus--Global Energy Trend(Prat4)
- KEPLER TEAM
- Aug 2, 2021
- 3 min read
The focus of natural gas consumption is shifting
Natural gas has always been the focus of continuous attention in energy development prospects. As early as 6 years ago, IEA expressed optimism that the natural gas industry has entered a golden age. This view soon became the mainstream view of the global oil and gas industry at that time. However, the subsequent natural gas market did not reach the expected degree of prosperity, "sandwiched between coal and renewable energy", and natural gas consumption maintained an average annual growth rate of 1.5%, which was even lower than 1% in 2014.
However, in recent years, the world's natural gas development has regained a strong momentum, and various prospects have also expressed optimism. In 2017, global natural gas consumption increased by 2.2%, and major consumer markets returned to the growth trajectory. The growth rate in Asia was the highest in 10 years, and Europe also changed from negative growth to rapid growth. In addition, natural gas has largely replaced coal for power generation, and continues to grow in traditional areas.
EIA, IEA, and ExxonMobil all predict that in the future, the world's natural gas growth will maintain an average annual growth rate of 1.4%-1.9%. By 2050, natural gas demand will increase by 64% over 2015. In addition, in the next 30 years, natural gas will flourish in all fields, residents, commerce, industry, and transportation will grow faster, and the demand for power generation will maintain a large base.
IEA pointed out that, unlike the previous 10 years, the industrial sector will surpass the power sector in the next 10 years and become the main driving force for natural gas demand. This is mainly due to the growth of industry in Asia, and more and more natural gas is used as energy and raw material for processing. In North America and the Middle East, the development of the chemical industry has also promoted the increase in demand for natural gas. In the past ten years, the power sector contributed half of the increase in natural gas, but in the future, the industrial sector will account for 40% of the increase in natural gas consumption.
At the 27th World Natural Gas Conference this year, many entrepreneurs said that the golden age of natural gas is not gone, but is long overdue. BP believes that the rapid growth of natural gas in the future, especially the growth of the industrial sector, is mainly due to the low-cost supply and LNG trade that greatly increase the availability of natural gas.
But natural gas also faces the problem of insufficient investment caused by low oil prices. IEA believes that all LNG infrastructure currently known will be put into production before 2020, and this wave of supply will lead to a loose market. However, insufficient investment in upstream infrastructure will cause the utilization rate of LNG facilities to rise in 2025 to the tense level before 2017.
Many institutions predict that in China, the natural gas golden period will last until 2040. Thanks to population growth, increasingly complete natural gas pipeline network facilities, rapid development of distributed energy and air pollution control, China's natural gas industry will be in a golden development period for a long time. From 2015 to 2035, due to the demand for natural gas from industry, residents and power generation With rapid growth, China's natural gas consumption growth rate is expected to reach 5.8%. It is estimated that China's natural gas consumption in 2050 will be close to 700 billion cubic meters.
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