"Fourth World"--Do you know the Current Trend of the future development of Global Energy(Part 2)?
- KEPLER TEAM
- Jun 23, 2021
- 3 min read
Energy pattern
"Fourth World"
The world's primary energy consumption structure tends to be clean, low-carbon and diversified, and the speed of transformation is faster than previously expected.
EIA believes that by 2040, consumption of fuels other than coal will increase worldwide. In the past three years, BP has substantially raised the estimated value of wind power and solar power installed capacity by 2035, up by 150%. In its outlook, ETRI believes that clean energy will dominate the world's energy demand growth. By 2050, natural gas, non-fossil energy, oil and coal will each account for a quarter, and clean energy will account for more than 54%. At the same time, oil and gas will still dominate in the future. Several reports predict that in 2040, oil and natural gas will account for 55%. It can be seen that the world energy structure is gradually advancing to a diversified pattern of "four parts of the world".
In the process of structural transformation, energy consumption in different fields has also changed significantly. BP, ETRI, and IEA have all noticed that energy consumption growth in the industrial sector is gradually slowing down globally, and construction is the fastest-growing sector. Energy demand in the industrial sector will peak in 2040 and will remain stable thereafter, and the electrification rate will continue to increase. BP believes that natural gas and electricity will meet the energy increase in the industrial sector in the future, and will become the main energy source for the industrial sector in 2040.
According to the IEA, electricity is a rising force among the end uses of various energy sources around the world. By 2040, electricity will account for 40% of the final increase in energy consumption-this is the energy consumption of oil in the past 25 years. Percentage of growth.
Various reports believe that China is the most typical country in the transition of energy structure. ETRI pointed out in the energy outlook that China's energy consumption has entered a period of conversion of new and old kinetic energy. In the future, as China's industrialization enters the later stage and urbanization is steadily advancing, the focus of energy demand will gradually shift from production energy to life energy, the proportion of industrial energy in the final energy consumption will gradually decline, and the transportation and building energy consumption will steadily increase . BP and IEA are also concerned about the increase in the proportion of the service industry in China's economic structure and the increase in the proportion of clean energy in the energy structure.
ETRI pointed out that the energy consumption of China's industrial sector will reach its peak in 2025. In the final energy consumption structure, the proportion of coal will drop significantly to 17% in 2050, natural gas will rise to 15%, and oil will remain at around 20%. On the one hand, structural changes are due to the accelerated trend of replacing coal with gas and electricity in the industrial sector; on the other hand, it is due to the rapid increase in household electrification.
Wang Zhongying, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that by the middle of the world, China's energy structure is expected to be 2/3 of renewable energy and nuclear power clean green energy, 1/3 of fossil energy, and China’s total primary energy consumption is only 36 100 million tons of standard coal.
In addition, some reports also pointed out that reduced investment during the low oil price period may hinder the energy transition process. The IEA pointed out in the "2017 World Energy Investment Report" that upstream investment is almost "halved". Underinvestment has led to a decrease in reserve discovery and insufficient infrastructure construction. With the economic recovery, energy demand continues to rise, and the opposite effect of supply and demand will bring about The price of oil has risen sharply. During the transition period of the global energy transition, stable oil and gas prices and supply and demand are more favorable. Once the short-term oil price soars, it may hinder the orderly progress of the energy transition.
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