Do you know the Current Trend of the future development of Global Energy(Part 1)?
- KEPLER TEAM
- Jun 15, 2021
- 3 min read
The global energy outlook of various energy think tank analysis institutions began in the early 1970s. At the time when the Middle East crisis led to high oil prices, major energy consuming countries realized that mature forecasting models are needed to formulate energy plans and energy policies. Every year, the International Energy Organization, major oil companies, and energy consulting agencies release dozens of global energy outlooks in accordance with their respective forecasting model systems to analyze the medium and long-term world energy development trends based on forecasting global economic trends.
Since the beginning of this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), OPEC (OPEC), BP, Exxon Mobil, China Petroleum Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI), IHS, Det Norske Veritas, etc. have successively released The 2018 version of the Global Energy Outlook has received extensive attention from the industry.
Today's energy outlook report not only predicts future energy development scenarios, but also affects future energy trends, especially at the "crossroads" of today's global energy landscape transformation.
By summing up and comparing the energy prospects of different organizations, seeking commonality among the differences will help us grasp new trends and have a definite target for future energy development.
Energy demand
-Growth Slows Down
Economic development judgment is the basis of energy forecasting. According to the prospects of various institutions, in the next 20 years, the global population growth rate will slow down significantly, and a small decline in economic growth will become a major trend in economic and social development. The most optimistic is OPEC, which predicts that the world economy will grow at a growth rate of 3.5%, while other institutions basically predict about 3%. By 2040, the world economy will double from 2015 to reach US$100 trillion to US$130 trillion, and the population will reach about 9 billion.
However, future energy demand growth and economic growth will not completely converge. According to various prospects, the world's energy demand growth between now and 2040 will be between 25% and 35%. The China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute (ETRI) released the "World and China's Energy Outlook in 2050". Economic Growth.
The growth of energy demand in different countries has risen and fallen. ExxonMobil, EIA, and BP all believe that the future increase in world energy demand will mainly come from emerging developing countries, such as China and India. With population growth, energy demand in the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa will also increase significantly. The energy demand of OECD countries will remain basically unchanged or even decline.
The economic growth rate is decoupled from the growth of energy demand, and the main reason is the improvement of energy efficiency and the decline of energy intensity. ExxonMobil believes that per capita energy consumption will remain basically unchanged by 2030, and will be lower than 2010 by 2040. ETRI also believes that in the next 30 years, energy intensity will drop to 0.88 tons of standard oil, a 50% drop from 2015, and energy consumption will drop by 2% annually. The International Energy Agency also believes that energy efficiency improvements have played a huge role in eliminating pressure on the supply side. Without energy efficiency improvements, the predicted increase in final energy consumption will more than double.
It is worth noting that, as the country with the largest energy consumption, although China's energy demand is still growing, the growth rate will continue to slow in the next 30 years. Energy intensity will continue to decline with the industrial transformation and will no longer be the main demand growth country. ETRI predicts that after 2035, China's energy demand will gradually decline, and its share of global primary energy will stabilize at 23%. By then, unit energy consumption will drop 54% compared to 2015. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that China's energy demand growth rate will be less than 1% in the future, which is in sharp contrast to the 8% demand growth rate since the 21st century.
Instead, other developing countries and regions have become the main force of energy growth. The International Energy Agency believes that in the future, India will contribute the most to demand growth, accounting for nearly 30%. By 2040, India's share of global energy consumption will rise to 11%. Southeast Asia is another growth giant in the global energy industry, and its energy demand growth rate is twice that of China. OPEC said that India will replace China as the world's largest energy consumer in 2040. However, this change is mainly the result of a downward adjustment in China's energy demand, not because India's energy demand prospects are more positive.
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